Mets Offseason Plans: Urgent Need for Rotation Upgrades and Second Base Solutions

The New York Mets head into what promises to be a critical offseason, particularly after finishing with one of the least effective rotations in Major League Baseball during the past season. Ranking 23rd in the league with a 4.47 ERA, 22nd in innings pitched (791), and trailing with a 9.1% walk rate, their pitching staff underperformed across the board. Just four pitchers, including Nolan McLean (179.2 innings), Sean Manaea (150.2), Christian Scott (110), and Freddy Peralta (113.2) reached the 100-inning threshold, with Peralta being traded to the Rays mid-season.

During his end-of-season address, David Stearns, the Mets’ president of baseball operations, emphasized the pressing need to enhance the starting rotation. While he refrained from specifying whether the team would pursue free agents or explore trade opportunities, he acknowledged various strategies for strengthening the pitching staff. He noted, “It is necessary for us to add to our starting rotation. We can do that in a variety of different ways.” His comments indicate a clear intent to invest in more reliable arms, focusing not just on immediate needs but also on long-term development of top-tier pitchers.

Among their internal options, McLean stands out as a potential ace. His performance this season was impressive, finishing with a 3.16 ERA in 31 games, which followed a promising debut the previous year. After 227.2 innings in the majors, he boasts an outstanding 2.93 ERA, with a striking 26.8% strikeout rate. With 1.044 years of service time, he remains under team control for several more seasons, delaying any arbitration discussions until the 2028-29 offseason.

Both Scott and rookie Zac Thornton provide additional options for next year's rotation. Scott, coming off Tommy John surgery, recorded a 3.85 ERA and held a 28.3% strikeout rate in his return. His tendency to allow fly balls could present future challenges, particularly regarding home runs, but his performance has shown potential for further growth. Like McLean, he’s controlled for the next four seasons, meaning the Mets will retain him at least until he approaches arbitration.

Thornton, a left-handed pitcher who emerged this season with a commendable 3.42 ERA over 84.1 innings, displayed outstanding command, evidenced by a low 5.3% walk rate, despite a below-average 18.7% strikeout rate. His strong minor league pedigree positions him well for a more significant role with the big club.

On the flip side, Manaea’s performance has fluctuated, struggling with a 4.68 ERA as a starter while posting a 5.02 ERA across 14 relief appearances. His overall numbers over the last two seasons, totaling 5.03 ERA across 211.1 innings, reflect instability after a hefty three-year, $75MM contract signed in the 2024-25 offseason. He represents an unpredictable element within the rotation as the Mets look to stabilize their pitching moving forward.

Former top prospect Jonah Tong had a mixed season, with a 3.82 ERA in limited major league innings but a lackluster 4.54 in Triple-A. Concerns regarding his command and reduced fastball velocity could limit his immediate impact. The situation is similarly uncertain for righty Tobias Myers, who registered the worst statistics of his career, while Tylor Megill is expected to miss the entire upcoming season after undergoing UCL surgery. Potential candidates like Jonathan Santucci, who performed well in Double-A but stumbled in Triple-A, might also vie for a rotation spot next year.

Kodai Senga’s trajectory is an even bigger question mark. After starting off his tenure with significant promise, finishing second in NL Rookie of the Year voting, his production has since declined, marred by injuries that have led to a loss of form. In the past two seasons, Senga has lost his spot in the rotation, needing to find his place in a bullpen role this year. Shifting to a single-inning role appeared to help, as he recorded a 3.78 ERA through 16.2 innings while striking out 22 against 9 walks. Nonetheless, his future with the team looks precarious as he enters the final season of a five-year, $75MM contract. Stearns mentioned the decision on Senga’s role will be made during spring training, stressing the importance of competitiveness in any position.

Another pressing issue for the Mets originates from second base, where Marcus Semien experienced a career-worst year, culminating in a .215/.280/.340 line across 547 plate appearances. His defensive metrics also took a hit, marking his first downturn into negative territory in Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average ratings. While he’s under contract for two more years totaling $46 million, the Mets face a dilemma. The option to unload Semien via trade may involve financial maneuvering, such as absorbing part of his salary to facilitate a swap, particularly given the extent of his decline in performance this season.

Stearns pointed to Brett Baty’s strong finish and the plethora of talented minor league infielders, indicating that the solution might not strictly necessitate trading Semien. The team possesses a promising cadre of prospects, including Jefferson Rojas, Emilien Pitre, and Mitch Voit, all of whom are within the organization’s top 20 prospects. The likelihood of Rojas being placed on the 40-man roster prior to the offseason is high, particularly regarding his eligibility for the Rule 5 Draft.

With offseason challenges on both the pitching front and infield positioning, the Mets have no shortage of significant decisions ahead. The interplay between potential trades, roster modifications, and the development of homegrown talent will define their strategy as they strive for a more competitive 2027 campaign.